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* Neighborhoods
covered: Back Bay,
Bay Village,
Beacon Hill, Charlestown, Chinatown,
Fenway,
Leather Dist.,
Midtown, N. End,
Seaport,
S. End,
S. Bos, Theater District, Waterfront, W. End.
* Neighborhoods
covered: Back Bay,
Bay Village,
Beacon Hill, Charlestown, Chinatown,
Fenway,
Leather Dist.,
Midtown, N. End,
Seaport,
S. End,
S. Bos, Theater District, Waterfront, W. End.
2/4/10-
Back Bay market details for
2009 and January are now posted, and
you can take a look at them here.
Some surprising metrics. According to LINK, which takes their closed
data from the Suffolk Registry of Deeds, the 4th quarter of '09 (114
closings) was the 2nd strongest 4th quarter since 2005 (although for
perspective, the 4th quarter of '04 had 198). This was definitely
enhanced by the homebuyer tax credit, although it's hard to know how
much.
Click here fore all the metrics.
2/3/10-
OK, I've finished the
South End current & 2009 wrap. Take
a look for all the fun metrics: $/SF, median prices, condos sold,
absorptions, etc. You couldn't have more fun if you tried. And I
know you will try. The South End was the least bad neighborhood
in one of the least bad cities in the US. As you can imagine, it's
all a mixed bag, but it's a heckuva lot better than last year (which
admittedly is not a high bar). I'm cautiously optimistic.
2/2/10-
Well that was fun wasn't it?
2009, I mean. Real
estate wise. My apologies to Sergio Leone, but it started out really
ugly, became merely bad, and then became...well, I don't want to say
good, exactly, but a heck of a lot better. In February, I was
gnawing on my fingernails...By the time it all ended in December,
the real estate market was still alive and out of the ICU (and
really really really thank you to those of you who referred friends
and family to me).
If you look at the
chart at the top (go ahead, I know you're dying to...), it's obvious
that '09 ended up with significantly fewer sales that '08 (mostly
due to extreme weakness in the late winter market. Median sales
price and $/SF were off too. It wasn't beautiful any way you look at
it, but it looks worse because the end of '08 was distorted on the
high end by the large number of closings at the Mandarin
in Back Bay. Uber uber high end.
In terms of number
of properties going under agreement, in the beginning of the year,
as I said, it was looking pretty scary. By the end of the year, we
had regained the ground we'd lost and were even a little ahead of
2007. Median prices are looking stronger than earlier in 2009, but
it's hard to know what's going to happen with those.
Indeed, it's hard
to know about any of this because it's obviously tied to the
national economy. Plus, I'm assuming that there will not be
an extension of the homebuyer tax credit. But I've said it before
and I'll say it again, Boston is probably the least bad place
to be. Supply, (except in the extreme high end) is relatively tight
and will remain so. Unemployment is unlikely to reach levels
commonly seen in other parts of the country.
In the coming days,
I'm going to be posting the detailed metrics on a neighborhood by
neighborhood basis, so keep checking back.
1/6/10-
You may have other interests in your life; say, nuclear physics,
staring out into space, collecting "Bewitched"
memorabilia...My particular tic is keeping an eye on the Boston real
estate market. I find it very interesting. Happily, not as
"interesting" as most other real estate markets around the country,
but interesting nonetheless.
Using the word
"recovery" is really premature. But hypothetically
speaking, what's going on now in Boston is what it would look
like. Vastly increased numbers of closings across most of the Boston
neighborhoods, not only in November (deadline for first time
homebuyer tax credit), but in December too (Under the new Homebuyer
Tax Credit Plan, one has until April 30 to get a new property under
agreement, and until July 1 to close...so not that much of an
incentive to get it done during the holiday season on that count--BTW,
here are the details of the Tax Credit Plan--not just for
first timers anymore).
Not only are we way
ahead of last year, but the year before that too. Plus, it's not
only closings, but properties going under agreement thru
December that are up too.
Median prices
are trending upwards too, but that, I think, is more the function of
they the type of properties closing (i.e. the Residences at the
W etc). I think prices will be more or less flat in most price
ranges and neighborhoods. The uber high end towers will still be a
deal for a while, since there's still a lot of inventory to sell at
the W, 45 Province, Clarendon, etc. In other price ranges, inventory
is tight to moderate (If you want to check out the interaction
between inventory and under agreements, check out the absorption
rates on the neighborhood pages to the left). Also, the employment
picture appears to becoming a hair more optimistic around here,
which will hopefully keep demand steady. And a steady market is good
for everyone. If you would like to communicate with me, please feel
free to email or call, or
visit my blog and do it that way.
12/31/2009-
As you can see, the number of properties in our market area that are
going under agreement is now way higher than where it was
last year. This probably shouldn't be a surprise, since the
waves of bad economic news were starting to crash upon us right at
that time. What is particularly encouraging, however, is that we
appear to be significantly ahead of where we were the year before
that. And the trend appears to be upward.
Median have
rocketed upwards.... Before homeowners start partying and
potential buyers navigate away, this is largely due to the high end
closings at the Bryant (some of which were those auctioned
properties) and 304 Comm Ave. I also think that sellers who might've
been too aggressive in their pricing, or who had properties that
were not in the right condition or location for the prices that they
were asking are now understanding that the holidays are coming and
it's time to get a transaction done. The peaks in 2008, BTW, were
due to a large number of closings at the new, uber high-end Mandarin
in
Back Bay and not reflective of the difficulties the market was
having at the time. Click the buttons on the left to see
individual neighborhood results.
Why is activity
up?
Obviously,
extremely low interest rates have helped. A $500,000 mortgage at
6% yields the approximately the same monthly payment as a $555,000
mortgage at 5%.
The $8,000 homebuyer tax credit has helped, as
have somewhat lower prices.
This tax credit has now been expanded to homebuyers who are not
first timers, as well as homebuyers with higher incomes.Click for FAQ on the tax credit.
I
think that there is more of an expectation now that the economy is
no longer in free fall, and has indeed, stabilized to a large
degree. The jobless rate has fallen for the first time since 2007. Many indicators across the country, and certainly here in
Boston have improved.
Additionally,
while we have certainly suffered
increased unemployment here, it has not approached the levels seen in
many other parts of the country. Because of the variety of
industries located here, we will likely continue to outperform most
of the rest of the country.
This has actually become a very good homebuying
opportunity, and to my
experience, it is being perceived as such by the potential buyers
that I am helping and speaking with.
Why have prices not gone lower than they have? Here in
Boston, as I've discussed before, the supply is limited. While other
regions were overbuilding, that hasn't happened here, and indeed
it is just not possible to that extent here in the
downtown Boston neighborhoods. Right now, supply is tight to moderate,
and the buyer "pool", at least for now, is absorbing it
increasingly well.
One niche that is
not performing well includes most properties in the "high end"
luxury hi-rise towers. Sales there have
been slumping, particularly in the newly constructed ones, leaving
years worth of inventory to sell off. There are some very good deals
to be had in this niche. Click here for
info on the 10/17 auction at The Bryant.
Is the local
real estate market steadying out? That obviously depends to a
large extent on the national economy, and there's plenty of room for
differing opinions on that account. But it's apparent that downtown Boston
is one of the most stable places to be right now.
_____________________________________________________________
The market does not behave as a whole, in
unison. It is divided into geographic and financial segments, which
are all behaving differently.
The pages linked to the buttons on the left will
give you a great deal of info about market behavior. This
includes $/SF, asking-selling differential, as well as lots of other
stuff.
Both Boston
real estate buyers and
Boston
real estate sellers should be aware of the
market conditions in the particular segment they're involved with.
Working with an experienced and knowledgeable agent can give you a
big edge. Now, more than ever, it is important for buyers to get
experienced help in executing a positive and comprehensive plan in
order to make the right decisions, in sorting out the worthwhile
properties, and getting help in negotiation and the transaction
itself. And now more than ever, it is necessary for
sellers
of Boston property to
take advantage of the extensive marketing exposure, as well as
market positioning, and negotiating experience that I bring to the
table. If you would like more detailed info,
or help purchasing or selling your
Boston real estate property, please
contact me.
And as always, if you'd like to search the
current inventory, click on the "Search Listings"
tab above.
Anyway, as I'm sure you
know, I stand ready to help you in either
searching for and
purchasing property
in Boston, or marketing and
selling
real estate in Boston.
And feel free to
contact me even if you just have some questions, or want to say hi.
Regards,
Joe |
