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That’s when the Federal Reserve started tightening the screws, ending our sugar high of historically low interest rates in an attempt to get a hold on inflation. The post-covid-lockdown period has certainly come with a variety of challenges and uncertainty.
As we start to transition into this period, it’s worth asking what the housing market is transitioning to.
Do you think it could be...normal?
3% interest rates are certainly not normal. Having 50 buyers bid on a house is not normal (as nice as it was for sellers).
I’m not trying to say that high interest rates are a good thing.
But what, historically, is a high interest rate? 5%? 6%? Is even 7% a high rate? Not historically. Just for perspective, I’ve got folks in my office who laugh and tell me, “I bought my first place at 18%!” (BTW, that's most assuredly not normal either).
Here is a link to the history of mortgage rates over the last 50 or so years.
Even at higher interest rates, the sky will not fall. Sellers will still be getting a nice return on their home. Buyers will not have to get into ridiculous bidding wars over homes. There is no bubble to burst.
Will a recession come? Maybe not tomorrow or even this year, but...Yes! They always do!
Here's my recession story: I bought my previous home in August of 2008. I paid $640,000. In 2010, in the middle of a historic economic meltdown, the unit next door to mine, essentially the same unit, sold for $575,000. In 2020, I sold my unit for $1.1m.
Let’s get a grip on what we have here in the Boston area: A super-strong economy with varied industries creating thousands of jobs. A vibrant city that is the envy of most of the rest of the country.
Over the last decades, Boston real estate has been a super investment.
Even in the 2009 meltdown, we saw minimal losses and a vibrant recovery. At this time, our market is much healthier. Home equity far surpasses what it was then. The average credit rating of current mortgage borrowers is significantly higher. The structural problems in the mortgage industry have been mitigated to a high degree.
And one more thing: Inventory. Levels of inventory here over the last 20 years or so have been low relative to most other markets. Absorption rates reflecting low levels of inventory, the envy of most other locations in the country, remain remarkably steady, even in relatively hard times, aside from a few spikes. As of June 15th, 2022, we had only 2.44 months of inventory in our downtown neighborhoods. For the same period of 2020 as we were emerging from Covid lockdown, we had 2.94. During 2009-10, they were higher, but nothing approaching the levels of unsold inventory we were seeing in other places.
If you just look at our neighborhoods in Boston, Brookline, Newton, Cambridge, Somerville, and our other local inner suburbs, you realize that there is little opportunity to build vertically (at least for non-uber-high-end housing), and there is virtually no room for sprawl (until you get to the more outlying suburbs). So for property owners, there is built-in value protection over the long run.
So long story short, "normalization" means that there will be less competition for properties (you may even score a great property without any competition!), and less sharp property value inflation.
Here is the detailed market report for *all* Boston neighborhoods and inner suburbs.
If you have questions about buying or selling Boston real estate, please call me at 617-584-9790, or send me an email at joe.wolvek@gibsonsir.com.
This classically appointed Back Bay 2 bed/2.5 bath condo in a prime waterside Beacon Street location has been listed by my colleague Mary Kelleher. This parlor duplex has spacious bedrooms, each with Carrera marble en-suite baths.The kitchen features granite counters, Thermador gas range, Sub Zero refrigerator, Bosch dishwasher, and Miele hood. There are three working fireplaces, soaring ceilings, Brazilian cherry floors and private garden. There is direct elevator access into the unit from the tandem parking area.See more details and photos for 484 Beacon Street, #1.See other Back Bay condos for sale.If you'd like to view this property, I'd love to arrange a showing for you. Please get in touch! You can call me at
617-584-9790, orsend me an email via the linkbelow.
This sunny and spacious Back Bay 2+ bed condo is a parlor/garden duplex with direct access full parking located on tree-lined Marlborough Street. This home has2.5 baths, a chef's kitchen with top-of-the-line appliances and a large island. The island flows effortlessly into the dining area and sprawling living room. Perfect for entertaining, the living room features a handsome fireplace and two over-sized windows allowing for plenty of natural light and enchanting views of the treetops.A conveniently located powder room and a vast master bedroom with a large walk-in closet, fireplace, and beautiful en-suite bath complete the upper level. Located downstairs is a second generously sized bedroom with en-suite bath. An interior bonus room offers great flexibility and can serve as extra storage, home office, gym, or nursery. Additional features include central A/C, in-unit washer/dryer, hardwood floors, and ample storage. Located on tranquil Marlborough Street, this home offers serenity in a beautiful and convenient Boston location.See more photos and details for 406 Marlborough Street, #1.See other Back Bay condos for sale.If youd like to see this home, please get in touch. I would be happy to arrange a showing for you. Please call me at
617-584-9790, orsend me an email via the linkbelow.
This brand new fully renovated Back Bay 2 bed 2 bath condo overlooks the quintessential views of Commonwealth Mall. A gorgeous sunny floor through home, it offers brand new white oak hardwood floors and crown molding throughout, new windows, in-unit laundry and 2 gas fireplaces. The modern open living room has a custom built-in office. The kitchen is tastefully designed with glass cabinetry, marble countertops, and Thermador appliances. The master suite features a gas fire place, walk-in closet, and marble bath.Ideally located between Clarendon and Dartmouth Streets, it is just a block away from Newbury Street's fine shops and restaurants.See more photos and details for 118 Commonwealth Avenue, #4.See more Back Bay condos for sale.If you'd like to view this Back Bay condo, get in touch! Please call me at
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#BostonRealEstateIn Back Bay Boston real estate news, the 273-room Taj Boston Hotel at 15 Arlington Street has officially traded hands. Mumbai-based Indian Hotels sold the property to a group of real estate firms, according to a Boston Business Journal article.Among those firms are Eastern Real Estate, Rockpoint Group, and New England Development.
Taj Boston is an internationally acclaimed hotel due to its rich heritage, superb location and grand architecture, said Stephen R. Karp, chairman of New England Development, in a statement. We look forward to making further improvements to this legendary hotel so it becomes the focal point of Bostons cultural activities.
The Back Bay property was first purchased by Indian Hotels in 2006 for $170 million.Read the Boston Business Journal's Taj Boston Sale Officially Closes, Improvements to Come.Are you interested in current trendsin the Boston residential real estate market? Take a look atmyBoston real estate market update.In my 24+ years in the Boston real estate market, Ive made it my priority to develop anextensive knowledge of the city, neighborhoods, buildings, people, and the many issues involved in the local real estate market. If youhave any questions at all about buying or selling Boston real estate, pleasecall me at
617-584-9790, or email me by clicking the blue button below.